The Expensive Cost of a Lost Borrower

Quantify the revenue lost when serviced borrowers leave—and the upside of improving recapture with Altair. Adjust the assumptions to reflect your portfolio and size the impact.

Portfolio
Unpaid principal balance across the book, in $ billions.
Servicing Economics
Agency MSRs traded ~5.5–6.0× through 2025; rate-sensitive.
MBA all-in production cost ran ~$11.1K/loan in Q3 2025.
Runoff & Recapture
Share of the book that pays off / refinances each year (CPR).
Industry retention sat ~28–30% in 2025; banks far lower.
Where a data-driven recapture program takes you.
Impact Basis
Choose the conservative (asset-only) frame or the full economic frame for the per-loan number.
Annual Recapture Upside
Revenue retained by recapturing your borrowers
$0/yr
Per-loan value at stake
$0
Loans running off per yearportfolio × prepay rate
0
Loans lost at current recapture rate
0
Value lost at current recapture
$0
Loans saved at target
0
Value of each 1 point of recapture-rate improvement
$0
Explore how Recapture Engine can deliver this type of impact across your portfolio.
Book a data consultation Learn more about Recapture Engine
Methodology & Formulas

Per-loan MSR value — the capitalized present value of future net servicing income that is extinguished when the loan prepays:

MSR = (fee_bps ÷ 10,000) × avg_balance × MSR_multiple

Full economic impact adds the cost to backfill that runoff with a newly originated loan, since the portfolio must replace what it loses:

Impact = MSR + cost_to_originate

Runoff & loss:

loans = UPB ÷ avg_balance runoff = loans × prepay_rate lost = runoff × (1 − recapture_rate) destroyed = lost × per-loan_impact

Recapture upside is the reduction in destroyed value from lifting recapture to target — the program's ROI:

upside = runoff × (target − current) × impact

Default assumptions reflect 2025–26 market data: servicing fee strips (~25 bps conventional / ~44 bps GNMA), agency MSR multiples (~5.5–6.0×), MBA per-loan production cost (~$11.1K, Q3 2025), and ICE/MBA servicer retention (~28–30%). Inputs are illustrative — replace with a prospect's actuals in diligence. The "MSR + replacement" basis is the full economic frame; switch to "MSR value only" for a conservative, asset-only number and report any recaptured new-MSR upside separately to avoid double-counting.

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